Palantir's Q3 Report: Still Overhyped, or Finally Worth the Hype?
So, Palantir's earnings are dropping on November 3rd. Big deal. Everyone's asking if it's a buy, sell, or fairly valued. Let's be real: most of these "analysts" are just regurgitating corporate talking points. I'm here to tell you what they won't.
The "Moat" is Just a Puddle
Morningstar calls it a "narrow moat," based on "switching costs and intangible assets." Give me a break. Every company claims to have a moat. Palantir's "AI framework" that "organizes disparate datasets and facilitates optimized decision-making"? Sounds like marketing bingo to me.
Yeah, yeah, they say no one else has their "ontological framework." But how long will that last? The tech world moves at light speed. Someone's always nipping at your heels. And with the decreasing cost of AI inference, are we really sure Palantir can maintain its dominance? I mean, really sure?
It's like claiming you have the only coffee shop on the block when Starbucks is building a mega-store across the street.
Valuation: Nosebleed Territory
Sixty-two times enterprise value/sales? For a fair valuation? They're smoking something strong over at Morningstar. A two-star rating means it's moderately overvalued, with a fair value estimate of $115. Okay, so who's actually going to pay that much?
This whole thing reminds me of the dot-com bubble. Remember Pets.com? Everyone thought the internet was going to change everything, and maybe it did, but that didn't mean every single pet food website was worth billions.
And speaking of bubbles, did you see that idiotic commercial with the talking animals? What were they thinking?
Palantir's got $900 million in cash and $5 billion in marketable securities. Good for them. But that just means they have a lot of money to potentially waste on some hare-brained scheme down the line. Remember that dual-class share structure? The one that lets them make "overzealous noncore investment opportunities"? Yeah, that's not exactly comforting.
The "Western Ethos" Problem
Here's the real kicker: Palantir's end markets are "confined to entities that coalesce with Western ethos." What does that even mean? Are they saying they can only sell to countries that agree with American foreign policy?
Offcourse, that limits their total addressable market. Big time. I mean, half the world doesn't exactly love the West right now, and for good reason. So, are they just writing off entire continents?
Maybe I'm being too harsh. Maybe Palantir really is the future of AI. Maybe they'll prove me wrong and become the next trillion-dollar company. Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here.
